Wednesday, May 4, 2016

FOREX-Dollar index hits session highs after U.S. services data

May 4 The dollar index rose to session highs on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected growth in the U.S. services sector in April reduced some worries about the domestic expansion in the second quarter.

The gauge of the greenback's value against the euro, yen and four other currencies was up 0.3 percent at 93.251, moving further away from its lowest level in over 15 months set on Tuesday. (Reporting by Richard Leong; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)


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Forex Broker Inc – Visit the Trading Academy and Learn Forex Trading Techniques

Forex Broker Inc.[1] is a trading platform registered in the Marshall Islands, with its headquarters in Belize and the European Offices in Malta. The company is a very reputable Forex broker always trying to do its absolute best to increase its traders' profits through its several bonus plans, trading tournaments, and other events. It is also one of the very few brokers in the industry to welcome USA traders. The company website is very easy to use and simple to navigate and it offers some of the best and most highly-regarded trading platforms in the industry.

Forex Broker Inc. is also very professional in terms of their level of customer service and response time. Users can make withdrawals with this company in a blink of an eye. The company processes funds as quick as the next day. The company provides the MT4 platform, Sirix Trader, iPhone Trader and Sirix Tablet platforms so that traders can check their investment at any place.

Forex Broker Inc.[2] offers more than 50 currency pairs to choose from including majors, minors, and exotics with flexible leverage up to 1:500 and access to interbank liquidity with spreads as low as 0.3 pips. Forex Broker Inc.  also trade in spot metals, CFDs, and energies. There are no fees for deposits or withdrawals.

In terms of rewards, Forex Broker Inc's offers a generous bonus structure[3] that fits the needs of any trader. Whether they are beginners or experienced Forex traders, they will get an initial reward.  Forex Broker Inc.[4] also brings extra fun and competition to its traders with its monthly Forex Freeroll Tournament and its regular VIP Status Tournament which is especially for VIP account holders. VIP traders will also have an exclusive treat ment such as higher bonuses, entry to the company's raffle and much more! If you are a VIP Status Account holder, you get to participate in Forex Broker Inc's VIP Status Tournament and have the chance to win BIG – a share of the $5,000 Cash Prize Pool!

To start real trading at Forex Broker Inc. you will need to fund your account with a minimum of $100 and depending on your funding method you will receive a welcoming bonus up to 50%.

The company also worries about newbies and for that, it offers in-depth lessons and instructional videos from Forex trading experts. All you need to do is to register for free at the Forex Broker Inc. interactive trading academy that offers courses on Technical Analysis[5], Trading Basics, Risk Management and more prepared exclusively by professional Forex traders. So, if you are new to Forex trading, visit the Forex Broker Inc. Trading Academy and start learning how to trade Forex now!

Source & Image[6][7]

  The opinions expressed in this article do not represent the views of NewsBTC or any of its team members.  NewsBTC is not responsible for the accuracy of any of the information supplied in Sponsored Stories such as this one.  

References

  1. ^ Forex Broker Inc. (www.forexbrokerinc.com)
  2. ^ Forex Broker Inc. (www.newsbtc.com)
  3. ^ bonus structure (www.forexbrokerinc.com)
  4. ^ Forex Broker Inc. (www.newsbtc.com)
  5. ^ Technical Analysis (www.investopedia.com)
  6. ^ Source (www.forexbrokerinc.com)
  7. ^ Image (www.youtube.com)

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Forex - Mexico Flows: MXN keeps negative trend and drops 0.8% to 17.75

And the emerging FX malaise continues with more concerns on global growth amidst thin liquidity. MXN is down 0.9% to trade at 17.77 coming from overnight trading and ahead of US ADP data. The change in tone may prompt more discussion about MXN weakness in the monetary policy meeting tomorrow. Looking ahead only a weak ADP (under 190K) number will change trend

In the domestic market there is only the usually overlooked gross fixed investment data for which we expect a 4.5%y/y reading to go along with the strong economic activity in Feb and the low comparison base. Leading indicators for March should benefit from stronger MXN and the recovery in the equity market and the lower risk aversion as well.

In the US, we should see a 205k increase in Apr's ADP estimate for private sector employment growth, and a fall in Mar's trade deficit to $40.3bn from $47.1bn. We expect a 1.2% decline in Q1 non-farm productivity with a 4.0% rise in unit labor costs. Apr's ISM mon-manufacturing index should rise to 55.5 from 54.5 while Mar factory orders should increase by 0.6% Moderate-hawkish Fed non-voter Kashkari speaks on Wednesday.


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Dollar Index: Risk of Double Top confirmation – SocGen

Research Team at Societe Generale, suggests that the Dollar Index is now at the 'make or break level' of 92.50/92.10, the lower part of the broad 1- year consolidation zone which intersects the upward channel limits in force since 2008 and 2011 lows.

Key Quotes

"More importantly, 92.50/92.10 corresponds to the neckline of the Double Top pattern the Index has been tracing after it failed to overcome the stiff resistance of 100.40. Should the Index confirm the pattern, i.e. breaks durably below 92.50/92.10 (weekly close) it would imply a potential down move towards the projected potential which is located near 85 levels. This would also mean re-integration within the aforementioned channels which would entail considerable risks to the entire up move since 2008.

Short-term, the Index is clearly witnessing increased downward pressure of late as highlighted by the bearish engulfing formed last week. Break below a daily descending channel indicates snow balling downside risks. Although both weekly and daily indicators are currently testing multi-year floor they remain on a shaky ground. If the down move extends further, immediate projections for the Index would be at 91.30 and 90.95 with key objective being near graphical levels of 89.60/89.00, also the 38.2% retracement of the uptrend from 2011 and 2008 lows."


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FOREX-Respite for the dollar after euro, yen surge

LONDON The yen and the euro both retreated from long-term highs against the dollar on Wednesday as markets looked to sentiment surveys in Europe and a series of U.S. jobs releases due by the end of the week for fresh direction.

There was talk in the market of the euro reaching levels beyond those assumed by the European Central Bank in forecasts for the euro zone economy, spurring speculation officials may seek to talk to the currency down.

The bigger debate for the moment is the yen, up 14 percent against the dollar since mid-December, and the chances of either outright intervention or, at some stage, far more aggressive policy action from the Bank of Japan to weaken it.

A U.S. Treasury report on Friday sent a warning shot by saying that "persistent one-sided" intervention to weaken the currency could see countries with big trade surpluses classified as currency manipulators and demand action.

No one expects it to come to that. But the report was taken as another sign that U.S. officials are not comfortable with more dollar gains. The greenback hit an almost 19-month low of 105.55 yen overnight, having hit its weakest against the euro since last August on Tuesday.

Against that were comments by San Francisco Federal Reserve President John Williams that he would vote for a rise in interest rates in June if economic growth was on track with his forecast and jobs gains continue.

"There is the feeling that the activity by the U.S. Treasury could have taken us into oversold territory with respect to the dollar," Rabobank strategist Jane Foley said.

"We have ADP jobs numbers today and then obviously we are thinking about payrolls on Friday. If they are strong again, does that push expectations for a rate rise higher again, does it create more dollar strength? It will be interesting to see."

The dollar gained a quarter percent to 106.86 yen JPY=[1], off earlier highs, by 0839 GMT. It was flat on the day at $1.1497 per euro, up from Tuesday's low of $1.1616.

The gains against the yen came in thin market conditions, with Japanese markets closed on Wednesday and Thursday for public holidays.

The yen last week saw its biggest weekly gain since 2008 - more than 5 percent against the dollar - as the Bank of Japan held off from expanding its stimulus.

Position squaring ahead of U.S. jobs data later in the week is probably supporting the dollar against the yen for now, said Stephen Innes, senior trader for FX broker OANDA in Singapore.

"There's a huge, huge short position built into dollar/yen right now," Innes said.

Against a basket of six major currencies, the dollar edged up 0.1 percent at 93.040 .DXY.

(Additional reporting by Masayuki Kitano in SINGAPORE; Editing by Alison Williams)

References

  1. ^ JPY= (uk.reuters.com)

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Tuesday, May 3, 2016

EUR/USD Forex Trading Strategies May 2016 - ECB Mario Draghi Snaps

A lot happened in the Euro zone yesterday. The head of ECB, Mario Draghi, snapped at German critics. Mr. Euro dared to test a strong resistance level as he dances against Ms. USA. Mr. Draghi also said that there is no alternative to low rates for now. with that, I had no choice but to dedicate this week to EURUSD forex trading strategies May 2016. Make sure you have checked your financial health[1] before getting tempted to trade our naughty currency pairs on the forex dance floor.

1- Euro zone Economy

Let's first look at the European economic situation. Here are the GOOD with the BAD:

The Good

  • Euro zone economy above pre-crisis peak: Overcoming years of crisis, the euro zone economy grew at its fastest pace in five years in the first quarter. This was driven by unlikely stars such as France and Spain. Although it took the EU eight whole years to recover, its economic growth is now larger than its peak right before the 2008 global economic crisis. Growth among the 19 countries sharing Mr. euro[2] jumped 0.6 percent on the quarter, well past expectations for 0.4 percent and ahead of Britain's 0.4 percent.

  • Healthy household consumption and a rebound in investment: Euro zone's economy has actually surpassed both the U.S. and British economies. Keep in mind that the UK is weighed down by uncertainty over possibly leaving the European Union, aka Brexit[3]. Euro zone growth doubled from the previous quarter, beating even the most optimistic expectations on healthy household consumption and a rebound in investments.

The Bad

  • High debt, weak bank profits, high unemployment and vast excess capacity in the economy:  Yes the bloc's economy is growing but will it continue? And does the growth outweigh the other 99 problems they currently struggle with? strength threatens to serve as an arrow to the heart of Japan's Abenomics. That is because it has been smashing exports and dampening inflation[4] at a time when the country is trying to boost both.
  • EU back in deflation: Last week,  inflation data showed the bloc was back in deflation, giving the European Central Bank its single biggest headache as it struggles to boost prices. Consumer prices fell by 0.2 percent compared to a year earlier, moving down from an unchanged reading March. Even after the ECB unveiled fresh stimulus in December and March in hopes of boosting inflation, which has undershot its 2 percent target for more than three years already.

Looking at the good and the bad, ECB's Mario Draghi said on Monday that low interest rates are only the symptom, not the cause of an underlying problem across major economies. When confronted about it, he said there is no alternative to low interest rates at this time. "Continued expansionary policies [is needed] until excess slack in the economy has been reduced and inflation dynamics are sustainably consistent again with price stability," Draghi said at a conference on Monday.

Keep an eye on...

  • ECB's  Non-monetary policy meeting on Wednesday May 4
  • Markit Services PMI on Wednesday May 4
  • Euro zone's Gross Domestic Product (GDP[5]) on Friday May 13

Note that Mr. Euro has become a new safe haven every time China announces miserable economic data.

2- US Economy

Last week's FOMC statement[6] was a major downer as we expected, as the majority of Fed members voted to maintain the target range for federal funds as is.

To weigh more on Ms. USA, the Fed hinted that "growth in economic activity appears to have slowed," likely because "growth in household spending has moderated" despite higher consumer sentiment and rising real income. Also, business investment and net exports have been softer.

Many investors say the probability of a rate increase at the next policy meeting in June remains low.

The month of May started with another set of US economic data in red. The ISM manufacturing PMI came in lower than expected. Although it still remained above 50 which is seen as positive (or bullish) for Ms. USA under normal circumstances. But Forex traders only saw the red and moved on by dumping her on the forex dance floor against her dancing partners.

On the bright side, US unemployment rate is almost half of that in the Euro zone.

Keep an eye on...

The roller coaster continues with EURUSD Forex Trading Strategies May 2016. Major economic events include:

  • Non-Farm Payrolls on Friday May 6
  • Export/ Import Price Index on Thursday May  12
  • Retail sales on Friday May 13
  • FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday May 18

3- EURUSD Technical Analysis

Now that we've crushed the fundamentals, let's see what the technical[7] point of the Invest Diva Diamond[8]  suggests for EURUSD Forex Trading Strategies May 2016:

Big Picture Monthly Chart: The pair remains below the ichimoku cloud[9], after completing series of lower highs since the 2008 financial crisis. Since February 2015, the pair has been bouncing inside a box, known as the king of consolidation[10]. As I have covered in our video education course, a break out of the box is a massive deal for currency pairs. That makes the recent test of the upper r esistance level of the box at 1.115 that much more important.

Daily Chart Market Sentiment: The pair remains above the ichimoku cloud[11] and has formed a Doji candle[12] after testing 1.15.  It now all depends on the following days' daily candlesticks patter. Aconfirmation of a break[13] above the box could finally signal a bullish reversal for EUR/USD.

4- EURUSD Forex Trading Strategies May 2016

As a savvy Invest Diva student[14] you should already be able to put the two and two together and come up with your own EURUSD Forex Trading Strategies for May 2016. But for our newbies and first time visitors, let me elaborate.

Keep an eye on 1.15. If the pair breaks above it, and CONFIRMS the break, we could expect a trend change with first bullish target set at the long-term 38%  Fibonacci[15] retracement level at 1.18. Alternatively, failure to break this resistance would signal further ranging within the box. For that, you could aim for either 1.11 or 1.05 as extended bearish targets.

[16]

Bearish triggers: 

  • Aggressive Fed tone and signs on improvement in US economy in FOMC minutes
  • Fed rate hike
  • Slow down in Euro zone growth

Bullish[17] triggers: 

  • Bad Chinese data
  • Improvement in Euro zone economy
  • Donald Trump becoming president of the United States

Summary: We are facing a very important make-or-break for EURUSD forex trading strategies May 2016. To learn more, we are always here to help you with your portfolio management education[18] and financial therapy. Keep in mind that we don't manage your money. We simply provide you with the necessary education to invest the right way.

Here are the important EUR/USD levels to keep an eye on:

Support Levels Turning Point Resistance Levels
1.11 1.15 1.15
1.05 1.11 1.18

This article was originally published on InvestDiva.com[19].

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



References

  1. ^ checked your financial health (investdiva.com)
  2. ^ Mr. euro (investdiva.com)
  3. ^ possibly leaving the European Union, aka Brexit (investdiva.com)
  4. ^ inflation (investdiva.com)
  5. ^ GDP (investdiva.com)
  6. ^ FOMC statement (www.federalreserve.gov)
  7. ^ technical (investdiva.com)
  8. ^ Invest Diva Diamond (investdiva.com)
  9. ^ ichimoku cloud (investdiva.com)
  10. ^ king of consolidation (investdiva.com)
  11. ^ ichimoku cloud (investdiva.com)
  12. ^ Doji candle (investdiva.com)
  13. ^ confirmation of a break (investdiva.com)
  14. ^ Invest Diva student (investdiva.com)
  15. ^ Fibonacci (investdiva.com)
  16. ^ (kiana3.typeform.com)
  17. ^ Bullish (investdiva.com)
  18. ^ your portfolio management education (investdiva.com)
  19. ^ This article was originally published on InvestDiva.com (investdiva.com)

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Middle East forex: an evolution

Strategic growth

While forex inflows and outflows did not account for much five years ago, today, traders across the GCC trade the same products as their counterparts in London or New York. The sector has experienced trade volume growth of more than 50 per cent year on year since 2011.

"The Middle East's importance is rapidly growing in the global forex market, especially with its retail segment, compared to a relative slowdown and decline in other global markets," says Anthony Hobeika, chief executive officer at MENA Research Partners.

This growth is largely driven by increased investor awareness of the opportunities available in forex as well as the region's strategic location between Asia and Europe. The local time zone enables it to capture market opening hours in the Far East as well as US closing hours in the same working day, giving it better access to the wider global market, particularly the G7 currencies.

"The GCC is a major corridor for global FX flows and we have seen an ever-increasing number of players in the market, as well as consistent growth in the number of people transacting in FX," says Gifford Nakajima, head of wealth development for Middle East and North Africa at HSBC.

Dubai essentially led the way in establishing a burgeoning forex market, investing in the necessary infrastructure and creating a financial sector that has come to serve as a regional hub for many international institutions. The creation of the Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange (DGCX) helped cement the emirate as the regional centre for financial trade and has attracted many international investors and firms.

"Given the strong growth of the UAE economy and the increasing number of expats coming to live and work here, we have seen FX transactional flows rising, both in and out of the country," says Nakajima. "Even in terms of the broader region, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are among the top three remittance markets globally."

DGCX is now the biggest pool of the Indian rupees (INR) offshore futures market, with the value of the INR traded on the exchange exceeding $1.5 billion per day in 2015.

Compared to other markets, the region's low-yield environment combined with low risk appetite has attracted more investors towards forex, mainly safe-haven currencies such as JPY and XAU (gold). The most popular currency pairings in the region are EURUSD, GBPUSD, XAUUSD, EURJPY and XAGUSD.


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Axis Bank bullish on pre-paid forex cards, controls 45% of market

MUMBAI: Axis Bank, which is increasing its focus on retail customers after corporate loan book became a drag due to bad loans, is accelerating its growth in high-yielding pre-paid forex cards where it has about half the market from nowhere a few years ago.

Axis Bank[4] now controls 45% of the $3-billion pre-paid forex card market in India, the bank quoted central bank data as showing. From $3 billion, Axis Bank alone sells $1.3 billion worth of foreign currency through its forex card offering while the total sale of foreign currency in India[5] is roughly $12 billion every year. Axis Bank has, so far, made $7-billion foreign currency sales in the past 11 years and is now targetting $9-billion sales through its forex card at the end of FY17.

"We have been growing our credit card[6] business[7] over 40% every year. 'International' is still a small portion not just for us, but everyone," said Sangram Singh, senior VP-Head Cards & Merchant Acquiring, Axis Bank. "Domestic e-commerce is currently driving the business, but international continues to remain a niche segment."

The lender has now tied up with Miles & More to offer world[8] travellers card powered by MasterCard[9] and Lufthansa. The Miles & More Axis Bank World Traveller Card will be available in 17 currencies, including a rupee[10] wallet. The user will also be able to earn and redeem award miles while flying overseas, or while using this card in India.

"We see huge opportunities in India as international travel[11] is still developing in the country," Wolfgang Will, Director, South Asia[12], Lufthansa[13], said. "If we see the demographics, more and more Indian middle class is accessing air travel and there lies huge prospects for us."

Pre-paid forex travel card is considered to be a convenient and inexpensive way to carry money abroad. Other banks that issue such cards are SBI, HDFC Bank[14], ICICI Bank[15] and institutions like Centrum[16] Direct and Thomas Cook[17]. Some might charge a nominal amount of Rs 100-150 for issuing the card, while others give it free of cost.

[1][2][3]

References

  1. ^ loan book (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  2. ^ pre-paid forex cards (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  3. ^ market (economictimes.indi atimes.com)
  4. ^ Axis Bank (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  5. ^ India (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  6. ^ credit card (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  7. ^ business (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  8. ^ world (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  9. ^ MasterCard (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  10. ^ rupee (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  11. ^ travel (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  12. ^ South Asia (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  13. ^ Lufthansa (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  14. ^ HDFC Bank (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  15. ^ ICICI Bank (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  16. ^ Centrum (economictimes.indiatimes.com)
  17. ^ Thomas Cook (economictimes.indiatimes.com)

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Japan, France say sudden forex moves not desirable

TOKYO Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and French President Francois Hollande agreed that sudden moves in foreign exchange rates were undesirable, media reports said, as the yen rose to 18-month highs against the dollar.

The two leaders, after a meeting late on Monday in Paris, also agreed that the Group of Seven (G7) countries should be "flexible" in their fiscal spending policies to deal with increasing uncertainty in the global economy, Jiji and Kyodo agencies reported.

The G7 leaders are due to meet in Ise-Shima, Japan on May 26-27.

The yen rose to 18-month highs against the dollar after the BOJ kept monetary policy steady last week, defying market expectations that it would expand stimulus to protect Japan's fragile economic recovery.

(Reporting by Ritsuko Ando; Editing by Kim Coghill)

Photo

Our top photos from the last 24 hours.

References

  1. ^ Full Coverage (uk.reuters.com)

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Forex News Trading Strategy For The Week of 2nd - 6th May

This week is comparatively quite in terms of Forex News events. The highlight is US employment figures on Friday. Other releases worth keeping an eye on are New Zealand Employment data, UK Services PMI's and RBA monetary policy statement.
Full list of Forex news trading events taking place this week:

Monday 2nd

3:00pm BST – ECB President Draghi Speaks.
3:00pm BST – US ISM Manufacturing PMI.
6:25pm BST – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks.

Tuesday 3rd

2:30am BST – Australian Building Approvals m/m.
2:45am BST – Caixin Manufacturing PMI.
5:30am BST – Australian Cash Rate and RBA Rate Statement.
Tentative – New Zealand GDT Price Index.
5:30pm BST – BOC Gov Poloz Speaks.
11:45pm BST – New Zealand Employment Change q/q and Unemployment Rate.

Wednesday 4th

9:30am BST – UK Construction PMI.
1:15pm BST – US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change.
1:30pm BST – Canadian Trade Balance.
3:00pm BST – US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.
3:30pm BST – US Crude Oil Inventories.

Thursday 5th

2:30am – Australian Retail Sales m/m and Trade Balance.
9:30am BST – UK Services PMI.
1:30pm BST – US Unemployment Claims.

Friday 6th

2:30am BST – RBA Monetary Policy Statement.
1:30pm BST – Canadian Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
1:30pm BST – US Average Hourly Earnings m/m, Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.


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