Monday, June 6, 2016

London Forex Report: NFP Shocker Places Attention On Yellen Speech

London Forex Report

US came in at a mere 38k in May (April: revised to 123k) as mining sector continued to shed jobs and a strike caused job losses in the telecommunication sector. The disappointing payrolls number reinforced Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester's view that gradual hikes remain appropriate, but added not to "read too much into one number", increasing market's scrutiny on today.

Other US data were mixed. Services sector showed signs of slowing down but factory orders gathered steam in April. USD plunged after dismal US nonfarm payrolls dampened Fed rate hike hopes. The slumped immediately after the release of worse than expected labor market data and slipped lower thereafter, closing 1.61% lower at 94.02.

FX Majors

Eurozone rose from 53.1 to 53.3. After a 0.6% MOM decline in March , sales were flat from March to April as household consumption remained subdued in the euro area.

UK in May posted a reading of 53.5, beating forecast of 52.5, but remains subdued as the rate of growth was one of the weakest seen over the past three years.

Yen surged following the disappointing US jobs reports. Should US rate hike policy continue to get priced lower across the markets, strength of the Japanese yen could continue as risk aversion flows persist in the face of gloomy global economic outlook.

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: The breach of 1.1250 was the catalyst for the push to 1.1350, where the advance has stalled, printing a high of 1.13735. As 1.1290 symmetry supports, expect a break of highs targeting 1.14 as the next upside objective. Below 1.12 suggests false upside break and resets attention on 1.1065
Retail Sentiment: Bearish
Trading Take-away: Long

EUR/USD Chart

EUR/USD Chart

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: While 1.4580/1.46 contains upside reactions, expect a retest of 1.4330 bids in a pre Brexit referendum range of 1.4770/1.4330
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

GBP/USD Chart

GBP/USD Chart

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Anticipated trend resistance at 111.30 attracted sellers, with downside ratchet now targeting a retest of 1.5.55 lows, with the potential for a daily double bottom pattern to develop. Failure at 1.05 opens 103 as the next downside objective. 108.50 is the near-term pivotal resistance
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

USD/JPY Chart

USD/JPY Chart

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bearish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: Bears came within 20pips of the much anticipated 120.60 level. While 121.20 contains upside reactions, expect a grind lower to breach last week's lows enroute to a weekly equality objective at 117.36
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Short

EUR/JPY Chart

EUR/JPY Chart

Commodities FX:

price rallied strongly after the weak US May jobs data dialed back the likelihood of a Fed rate hike in the next few months, sending the US dollar tumbling and gold price soaring. The gold price jumped higher by US$30.30 0 to US$1240.10 on Friday.

prices edged lower on Friday (June 3) after the US poor jobs data weakened demand outlook. Prices were further hurt by an increase in US rigs for drilling oil by 9, the first increase in 11 weeks, according to oil-related service provider, Baker Hughes. The US Nymex WTI futures decreased by US$0.55 to US$48.62.

A poor Australian retail sales print prompted increased speculation that the RBA would cut again at this Tuesday's RBA rate decision meeting. Apart from that, Chinese trade balance due this Wednesday will also be focused on as well, so as to assess the health of the second largest economy.

Canadian trade deficit in April narrowed from C$3.2 billion in March to C$2.9 billion in April. Higher exports of energy products, industrial machinery, equipment and parts, and metal products contributed to most of the 1.5% growth in exports. Canadian jobs figures will be due this Friday, which are expected to show further improvement in the domestic labor market.

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While .7300/.7280 contain downside reactions, AUD has a window to recover. Test symmetry and structure resistance sited at .7480/.7500, where fresh selling is expected to emerge. Failure at .7210 suggests early reversal, with bears targeting .7140 lows and stops below.
Retail Sentiment: Bullish
Trading Take-away: Sidelines

AUD/USD Chart

AUD/USD Chart

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bearish

Technical: While 1.2910 supports, price continues to carve out a bullish consolidation pattern, targeting offers at 1.3210 as the next upside extension target. Only a close below 1.2760 eases bullish pressure and suggests a grind back to test bids at 1.2459 and stops below
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

USD/CAD Chart

USD/CAD Chart

Outlook: Short Term (1-3 Days): Bullish – Medium Term (1-3 Weeks): Bullish

Technical: Bids ahead of pivotal1190 proved sufficient to see a sharp reversal from sub 1200 to test offers ahead of 1250. While this level stems the upside expect a rotation back towards 1225. Over 1250 opens pivotal 1280 resistance. Failure at 1190 opens 1140/50 symmetry targets.
Retail Sentiment: Neutral
Trading Take-away: Neutral

XAU/USD Chart

XAU/USD Chart


SourceDownload Lagu Online

London Forex Report: NFP Shocker Places Attention On Yellen Speech Rating: 4.5 Posted by: Unknown

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