After a relatively weak attempt to move towards 16.70 in overnight trading, the currency is marginally down to 18.6882 with the market preparing for the US NFP data, which could tilt the bets for the June meeting (15th). Strong numbers in the labour report should send MXN to tests 18.75. A weak number will help MXN to return towards 18.50.
In the domestic market, data calendar is very light with gross investment for March numbers likely to come on the negative side.
In the US, we expect a 155k (145k private) increase in May's non-farm payroll, though we expect that to be restrained by 40k from a strike. Average hourly earnings should rise by 0.2% and unemployment should fall to 4.9% from 5.0%. At the same time we expect a trade deficit of $41.0bn versus $40.4bn in Apr. Later we expect May's ISM non-manufacturing index to rise to 56.5 from 55.7 and Apr factory orders to rise by 2.2% largely on transport and petroleum. Two Fed doves are due to speak on Friday, non-voter Evans before the payroll and voter Brainard after the release.
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