Monday, May 30, 2016

Forex: USDJPY Remains in Downtrend due to Inflation in Japan

Foreign exchange market

Forex: USDJPY Remains in Downtrend due to Inflation in Japan

As shown by April report of Japanese National Statistics, consumer prices keep falling. Economists expect proper measures to be taken by the Bank of Japan at its meeting in June.

The index of consumer prices in April has amounted to 0.2% in comparison to its value in March. Annual CPI shows price drop by 0.3%.

The basic index of consumer prices in May remains the same as in April. On year over year basis the price has dropped by 0.5%. The price drop is not expected to exceed 0.4%.

National index of consumer prices in April has shown annual decline by 0.3%. This figure has remained unchanged in comparison to its previous value.

These data appear prior to the meeting of the Bank of Japan, appointed for June 15-16. Before this date the Central Bank will publish its own report on inflation. The "Market Leader" supposes that reports of National Statistics will increase pressure on the Bank of Japan with regard to measures on further stimulation of the country's economy.  Lasting price drop increases doubt concerning effectiveness of policy, implemented by Haruhiko Kuroda, after introduction of negative quotations. Market participants have already expressed their discontentment with absence of changes in monetary policy at April meeting, and they expect that the Bank of Japan will bring corrections into his policy at its meeting in June.

Meanwhile, USD/JPY remains in correction to long-term trend for strengthening. On May 27, 2016 the currency pair has finished A/B up-wave of not less than Daily level, as stated by the experts of Masterforex-V Trading System[1] . Once USD/JPY pair has broken the maximum of 110.44/58, it will start "bullish" wave A/B of not less than Daily2 level. Main resistance will be provided by pivot MF 111.88. The trend may also stop for resistance at Fibonacci levels 112.51/67 and 113.60/69. Overcoming the minimum of 109.41 will show the beginning of a  "bearish" wave A/B with Daily potential. Support will be provided by pivot MF 109.10 and Fibonacci levels 108.65/62 and 108.06/107.99.


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