Saturday, May 14, 2016

Forex Speculators slightly pulled back on US Dollar bearish positions last week

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

US Dollar net speculator positions settled at -$6.19 billion last week

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators slightly cut back on their bearish bets of the US dollar last week after USD speculative positions had fallen for nine straight weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar short position totaling -$6.19 billion as of Tuesday May 10th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$0.27 billion from the -$6.46 billion total short position that was registered on May 3rd, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar speculative position remains in bearish territory after turning bearish four weeks ago on April 19th. The dollar had been in bullish territory approximately for the previous two years (May 6th 2014 was the last time dollar had been bearish overall).

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week's data showed that the biggest movers on the positive side were the Canadian dollar (+6,931 change in weekly contracts), the British pound sterling (+5,473 contracts) and the euro (+1,747 contracts). Canadian dollar positions have continued to rise higher for fifteen straight weeks while euro positions have now gained for eight straight weeks and pound sterling positions rose for the third straight week.

Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning gains were the New Zealand dollar (+152 contracts) and the Swiss franc (+88 contracts).

Currencies whose speculative net positions declined last week were the Japanese yen (-2,474 change in weekly contracts), Australian dollar (-14,237 contracts) and Mexican peso (-32,800 contracts).

Weekly-Spec-Changes-COT

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 10th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 59737 -7614 -53487 10324
20160412 55803 -3934 -52051 1436
20160419 51940 -3863 -46917 5134
20160426 44726 -7214 -39667 7250
20160503 27558 -17168 -23619 16048
20160510 29484 1926 -21872 1747

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 70900 10394 -46506 -6478
20160412 74181 3281 -51310 -4804
20160419 71019 -3162 -55152 -3842
20160426 67606 -3413 -48669 6483
20160503 56878 -10728 -40408 8261
20160510 55022 -1856 -34935 5473

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 -69057 -9094 60073 5686
20160412 -70758 -1701 66190 6117
20160419 -76829 -6071 71870 5680
20160426 -67685 9144 66498 -5372
20160503 -65495 2190 61521 -4977
20160510 -63294 2201 59047 -2474

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 -2077 -5228 5649 1002
20160412 -8137 -6060 8238 2589
20160419 -10027 -1890 9410 1172
20160426 -4664 5363 9265 -145
20160503 -4870 -206 6829 -2436
20160510 -978 3892 6917 88

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 -6488 -10147 97 6277
20160412 -10102 -3614 2385 2288
20160419 -18065 -7963 7308 4923
20160426 -25684 -7619 11999 4691
20160503 -30745 -5061 18943 6944
20160510 -33890 -3145 25874 6931

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 -37235 -1470 26845 3379
20160412 -45114 -7879 35122 8277
20160419 -53551 -8437 44106 8984
20160426 -68470 -14919 59540 15434
20160503 -58577 9893 52395 -7145
20160510 -42718 15859 38158 -14237

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 -2793 -1136 2903 1029
20160412 -3974 -1181 4292 1389
20160419 -5959 -1985 5351 1059
20160426 -9373 -3414 7384 2033
20160503 -10543 -1170 9200 1816
20160510 -9689 854 9352 152

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160405 33303 -8558 -31878 8918
20160412 47092 13789 -46591 -14713
20160419 13463 -33629 -14409 32182
20160426 19344 5881 -19315 -4906
20160503 12550 -6794 -12420 6895
20160510 47903 35353 -45220 -32800

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm[1]).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com[2]


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