Saturday, May 28, 2016

Forex Speculators raised US Dollar bets to first bullish position since April

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

US Dollar net speculator positions rose last week to +$3.73 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators boosted their bets in favor of the US dollar last week and pushed speculative positions into a new bullish position after being in bearish territory for five straight weeks.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling +$3.73 billion as of Tuesday May 24th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of +$7.92 billion from the -$4.19 billion total short position that was registered on May 17th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

The US dollar speculative position has now improved for three straight weeks and is back in bullish territory for the first time since April 12th.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Last week's data showed that only the British pound sterling (+5,587 change in weekly contracts) saw higher speculative positions against the dollar.

All the other major currencies recorded lower speculative positions against the dollar on the week with the sharpest declines taking place in the Japanese yen (-36,860 weekly change in contracts), the Australian dollar (-24,769 contracts) and the euro (-15,308 contracts).

Other currencies last week showing speculative positioning declines were the Swiss franc (-193 contracts), New Zealand dollar (-2,112 contracts), Canadian dollar (-2,659 contracts) and the Mexican peso (-1,769 contracts).

Notable changes showed that Canadian dollar positions fell for a second week after rising for the previous sixteen straight weeks while Japanese yen positions dropped sharply and have now declined for five straight weeks.

Australian dollar positions have fallen rather sharply for four straight weeks and now hold a barely positive net position of just +124 contracts.

Weekly-Spec-Changes-COT

This latest COT data is through Tuesday May 24th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 51940 -3863 -46917 5134
20160426 44726 -7214 -39667 7250
20160503 27558 -17168 -23619 16048
20160510 29484 1926 -21872 1747
20160517 34116 4632 -22587 -715
20160524 48501 14385 -37895 -15308

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 71019 -3162 -55152 -3842
20160426 67606 -3413 -48669 6483
20160503 56878 -10728 -40408 8261
20160510 55022 -1856 -34935 5473
20160517 60935 5913 -38422 -3487
20160524 54031 -6904 -32835 5587

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 -76829 -6071 71870 5680
20160426 -67685 9144 66498 -5372
20160503 -65495 2190 61521 -4977
20160510 -63294 2201 59047 -2474
20160517 -62439 855 58919 -128
20160524 -23035 39404 22059 -36860

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 -10027 -1890 9410 1172
20160426 -4664 5363 9265 -145
20160503 -4870 -206 6829 -2436
20160510 -978 3892 6917 88
20160517 4440 5418 4147 -2770
20160524 11498 7058 3954 -193

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 -18065 -7963 7308 4923
20160426 -25684 -7619 11999 4691
20160503 -30745 -5061 18943 6944
20160510 -33890 -3145 25874 6931
20160517 -33527 363 22706 -3168
20160524 -25595 7932 20047 -2659

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 -53551 -8437 44106 8984
20160426 -68470 -14919 59540 15434
20160503 -58577 9893 52395 -7145
20160510 -42718 15859 38158 -14237
20160517 -26088 16630 24893 -13265
20160524 -605 25483 124 -24769

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 -5959 -1985 5351 1059
20160426 -9373 -3414 7384 2033
20160503 -10543 -1170 9200 1816
20160510 -9689 854 9352 152
20160517 -6825 2864 6688 -2664
20160524 -4184 2641 4576 -2112

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160419 13463 -33629 -14409 32182
20160426 19344 5881 -19315 -4906
20160503 12550 -6794 -12420 6895
20160510 47903 35353 -45220 -32800
20160517 48932 1029 -45691 -471
20160524 50128 1196 -47460 -1769

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm[1]).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com[2]


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