Friday, April 15, 2016

Forex technical analysis: USDCAD moves away from the 100 hour MA

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Double top at 1.2896 area

The USDCAD has been encouraged higher by lower oil prices[1] today. Manufacturing sales came out weaker at -3.3% which is also a disappointment (estimate -1.5%).  Technically, the move higher was encouraged by break of the 100 hour MA and a trend line connecting the weeks highs from Monday and yesterday. The break of both was the catalyst needed for higher prices.


The pair has run into resistance, however against the high from yesterday. That high price yesterday was right against the 100 hour MA.  With the 100 hour MA lower today, the hurdle was easier, but now the remembered high is giving traders cause for pause (i.e. a risk defining level).  It can't be easy on a Friday.

Looking at the 5-minute chart, the other highs from yesterday and again today should provide support if the buyers - seen today - like the idea.  Of course the double top has to be maneuvered - and sellers against that high on an intraday punt are felling ok too - but that is what trading is about....winning the battles or lose but don't get destroyed. Other support?  You can go all the way back to the 100 hour MA on a break I guess.

Reminder: It is Friday. Doha (read oil related news) will be over the weekend.  So trading today should just be trading for today....


The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



References

  1. ^ oil prices (www.nasdaq.com)

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