Monday, April 18, 2016

Forex - Preview: due 28 Apr - Sweden Mar retail sales

Swedish retail sales fell by -0.2%m/m in February following the 1.1%m/m growth in January which pulled down the non-seasonally adjusted y/y rate to 3.9%y/y (prev: 4.7%y/y). We expect retail sales in March to show a 0.3%m/m increase from February as the current economic environment in Sweden which includes very low interest rates and a falling unemployment rate should continue to support consumption. Indicators for demand in Sweden remain incredibly strong with both the new orders and planned production components of the manufacturing PMI rising further into expansion in March, while NIER's retail trade confidence indicator suggests a much stronger situation than normal in the sector. HUI research noted that 'the outcome [from February] suggests that last year's consumption level might remain for a while', however confidence in the retail trade has been consistently falling for several months now and so we expect a relatively subdued increase in sales in March.


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