Monday, April 18, 2016

Forex Market: USD/PLN daily trading outlook

Friday's trade saw USD/PLN within the range of 3.7916-3.8320. The pair closed at 3.8066, going down 0.25% on a daily basis. It has been the 11th drop in the past 23 trading days. In weekly terms, USD/PLN added 0.96% to its value during the week ended on April 17th. It has been the 8th gain in the past 15 weeks and also a second consecutive one. USD/PLN has advanced 2.02% so far during the current month, following two consecutive m onths of decline.

At 7:34 GMT today USD/PLN was inching up 0.08% on the day to trade at 3.8046. The pair touched a daily high at 3.8117 at 6:43 GMT, undershooting the daily R2 level, and a daily low at 3.7980 during the early phase of the Asian trading session.

On Monday USD/PLN trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic reports and other events as listed below.

Fundamentals

United States

Fed's Dudley speech

At 12:30 GMT the Fed President for New York, William Dudley, is expected to take a statement. His remarks may introduce limited-to-moderate volatility of the currency pairs containing the US dollar.

NAHB Housing Market Index

The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index probably rose to 59.0 in April, according to market expectations, from 58.0 in March. If so, this would be the 22nd consecutive month, when the gauge stood in the area above 50.0. The indicator is based on a monthly survey in regard to current home sales and expected sales in the coming six months. Values above the key level of 50.0 indicate that housing market conditions are good. Therefore, higher-than-projected readings would provide a moderate support to the US dollar. The official report is scheduled for release at 14:00 GMT.

Correlation with other currency pairs

Taking into account the week ended on April 15th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

USD/PLN to USD/CHF (0.9739, or very strong)
USD/PLN to USD/JPY (0.9049, or very strong)
USD/PLN to AUD/USD (0.7074, or strong)
USD/PLN to NZD/USD (0.0388, or very weak)
USD/PLN to USD/CAD (-0.1868, or weak)
USD/PLN to GBP/USD (-0.8416, or very strong)
USD/PLN to EUR/USD (-0.9871, or very strong)

1. During the examined period USD/PLN moved strongly in one and the same direction with AUD/USD.

2. USD/PLN moved almost independently compared to NZD/USD during the past week.

3. USD/PLN moved almost equally in one and the same direction with USD/JPY and USD/CHF during the period in question. This relationship has been the most pronounced between USD/PLN and USD/CHF, as the correlation between the two pairs was almost perfect.

4. USD/PLN moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to GBP/USD and EUR/USD during the past week. This relationship has been the most pronounced between USD/PLN and EUR/USD, as the correlation between the two pairs was almost perfect.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the Camarilla calculation method, the daily pivot levels for USD/PLN are presented as follows:

R1 – 3.8103
R2 – 3.8140
R3 (range resistance) – 3.8177
R4 (range breakout) – 3.8288

S1 – 3.8029
S2 – 3.7992
S3 (range support) – 3.7955
S4 (range breakout) – 3.7844

By using the traditional method of calculation, the weekly pivot levels for USD/PLN are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 3.7927
R1 – 3.8565
R2 – 3.9064
R3 – 3.9702

S1 – 3.7428
S2 – 3.6790
S3 – 3.6291

Author: [1] Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at Binary Tribune, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market.

References

  1. ^ (www.binarytribune.com)

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