Friday, February 12, 2016

Forex technical analysis: EURUSD looking closely at the 100 hour MA

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Wednesday it broke but failed

The EURUSD is down testing the 100 hour MA as NA traders enter for the day. The MA comes in at 1.12623. The low today just reached 1.12614.  There has been a modest bounce off the first test to 1.1268.  ON Wednesday, the MA was broken (along with trend line support. That break sent the price tumbling down to Tuesday's low only to find buyers and a snap back rally.  Today, the price has already worked it's way below the trend line. The price has stayed below. This is the next target in the corrective move.


Short out there have been running into dip buyers. This is another test.  ON the first look, the buyers are leaning against the level.  On a break, there should be sellers. The next downside target will be the 1.1237-42 area where there are highs from Feb 4, Feb 5 and Feb 9.

PS The range for the day is 71 pips. The average is 112 for the last 22-days. So there is room to roam.

PSS The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart  (blue line in the chart below) has put a lid on the last two upside attempts. That will be a risk level for shorts out there.   Longs against the 100 hour MA want to see that level for increased upside potential (see chart below).


Retail sales due out at 8:30 AM ET. The estimate is +0.1% MoM (for Jan). The ex Auto and gas is est at +0.3%.  The Control group is expected to also rise by 0.3%. 

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.



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