Saturday, February 20, 2016

Forex Speculators cut US Dollar net bullish positions for 8th week, lowest since May 2014

By CountingPips.com | Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies

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US Dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$8.31 billion

The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators continued to reduce their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for an eighth consecutive week and brought the net bullish position to the lowest level since May of 2014.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $8.31 billion as of Tuesday February 16th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$4.29 billion from the $12.60 billion total long position that was registered on February 9th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

Last week's data brings the US dollar speculative level to the lowest level since May 27th of 2014 when net positions stood at $7.44 billion.

Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:

Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators increased their bets in favor of the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar while decreasing weekly bets for just the Mexican Peso.

Weekly-Spec-Changes-COT

This latest COT data is through Tuesday February 16th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers & traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.

Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)

Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price

EuroFX:

EURO-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 398570 -8535 161751 -17621 -146451 14192
20160119 400362 1792 147467 -14284 -137015 9436
20160126 402227 1865 142818 -4649 -127215 9800
20160202 403939 1712 111997 -30821 -87073 40142
20160209 441228 37289 74024 -37973 -63314 23759
20160216 429997 -11231 53764 -20260 -48205 15109

British Pound Sterling:

GBP-Brit-Pound-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 238868 16875 58816 4415 -30521 -25
20160119 259589 20721 64795 5979 -38579 -8058
20160126 272798 13209 72297 7502 -47537 -8958
20160202 270680 -2118 71746 -551 -45018 2519
20160209 255866 -14814 54709 -17037 -36300 8718
20160216 260649 4783 57559 2850 -36255 45

Japanese Yen:

Japanese-Yen-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 241366 20659 -23845 -28388 25266 21163
20160119 247614 6248 -40417 -16572 37653 12387
20160126 250711 3097 -54641 -14224 50026 12373
20160202 237289 -13422 -27090 27551 37245 -12781
20160209 237081 -208 -40801 -13711 43232 5987
20160216 248985 11904 -51459 -10658 47901 4669

Swiss Franc:

CHF-Swiss-Franc-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 46428 -3848 12883 -2195 3324 -296
20160119 49290 2862 14803 1920 906 -2418
20160126 55694 6404 22174 7371 -4503 -5409
20160202 59370 3676 22956 782 -4695 -192
20160209 52701 -6669 17846 -5110 -7268 -2573
20160216 48564 -4137 12058 -5788 -4366 2902

Canadian Dollar:

Canadian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 166273 -337 78709 -1026 -59214 916
20160119 165344 -929 82481 3772 -66386 -7172
20160126 165240 -104 81197 -1284 -66819 -433
20160202 157362 -7878 70420 -10777 -52420 14399
20160209 157150 -212 59638 -10782 -51935 485
20160216 158608 1458 52387 -7251 -45085 6850

Australian Dollar:

Australian-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 121590 22589 46601 20545 -23043 -9282
20160119 132814 11224 59902 13301 -36267 -13224
20160126 125451 -7363 50874 -9028 -32798 3469
20160202 122056 -3395 41630 -9244 -26168 6630
20160209 113354 -8702 14479 -27151 -5626 20542
20160216 111447 -1907 5308 -9171 2807 8433

New Zealand Dollar:

NewZealand-Dollar-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 25434 506 320 256 1541 -38
20160119 28114 2680 6003 5683 -2954 -4495
20160126 30437 2323 8331 2328 -5400 -2446
20160202 30979 542 10539 2208 -8436 -3036
20160209 33544 2565 9999 -540 -9139 -703
20160216 33596 52 9866 -133 -8317 822

Mexican Peso:

Mexican-Peso-COT

Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions

Date Open Interest Change OI Net Commercial Positions Weekly Com Changes Net Large Specs Positions Weekly Spec Changes
20160112 148683 5309 78856 12587 -74015 -12027
20160119 171971 23288 80363 1507 -76003 -1988
20160126 167763 -4208 81087 724 -76607 -604
20160202 166295 -1468 83364 2277 -78594 -1987
20160209 155692 -10603 51203 -32161 -46522 32072
20160216 161403 5711 82595 31392 -77385 -30863

*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm[1]).

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.

Article by CountingPips.com[2]

Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.

Forex Speculators cut US Dollar net bullish positions for 8th week, lowest since May 2014 Rating: 4.5 Posted by: Unknown

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