Saturday, February 13, 2016

Forex Market: AUD/USD trading outlook for February 15th

Friday's trade saw AUD/USD within the range of 0.7062-0.7137. The pair closed at 0.7107, inching down 0.03% on a daily basis. It has been the 15th drop in the past 29 trading days. In weekly terms, AUD/USD added 0.51% to its value during the current week, while marking its third gain in the past six weeks. It has been the smallest weekly advance since the week ended on October 4th, when the pair added 0.34%. AUD/USD has risen 0.31% so far during the current month, following a 2.68% slump in January.

On Monday (February 15th) AUD/USD trading may be influenced by the following macroeconomic report listed below.

Fundamentals

Australia

New Motor Vehicle Sales

At 0:30 GMT on Monday the Australian Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to report on new motor vehicle sales in the country for January. New vehicle registrations decreased 0.5% to 97 338 vehicles in December, dragged down by lower sales in almost all vehicle categories except passenger vehicles. Sales of other vehicles marked the sharpest monthly decline, going down 6.2%, followed by sales of sport utility vehicles (down 1.0%). On the other hand, sales of passenger vehicles went up 2.7% month-over-month in December.

New vehicle sales, as an indicator, reflect how strong consumer confidence is. In case consumers are willing to make large-ticket purchases, such as new automobiles, this suggests they have a greater confidence in regard to their financial prospects. However, as new car sales account for a small portion of the Australian Gross Domestic Product, a potential increase would have a limited bullish effect on the Australian dollar.

United States

The President's Day

Every third Monday in February is referred to as the President's Day federal holiday. This day commemorates all the past presidents of the United States and honors the life and deeds of George Washington, the first US President. Banks are to remain closed.

Correlation with other Majors

Taking into account the week ended on February 12th and the daily closing levels of the currency pairs involved, we come to the following conclusions in regard to the strength of relationship:

AUD/USD to NZD/USD (0.5434, or strong)
AUD/USD to GBP/USD (0.4032, or moderate)
AUD/USD to EUR/USD (0.2214, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CAD (0.2168, or weak)
AUD/USD to USD/CHF (-0.0881, or very weak)
AUD/USD to USD/JPY (-0.8178, or very strong)

1. During the examined period AUD/USD moved strongly in one and the same direction with NZD/USD.

2. AUD/USD moved almost equally in the opposite direction compared to USD/JPY during the week.

3. AUD/USD moved almost independently compared to USD/CHF during the period in question.

4. The correlation between AUD/USD and EUR/USD, AUD/USD and USD/CAD was insignificant.

Daily and Weekly Pivot Levels

By employing the traditional calculation method, the Monday pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7102
R1 – 0.7142
R2 – 0.7177
R3 – 0.7217

S1 – 0.7067
S2 – 0.7027
S3 – 0.6992

By using the traditional method of calculation again, the weekly pivot levels for AUD/USD are presented as follows:

Central Pivot Point – 0.7080
R1 – 0.7188
R2 – 0.7270
R3 – 0.7378

S1 – 0.6998
S2 – 0.6890
S3 – 0.6808

Author: [1] Miroslav Marinov, a financial news editor at Binary Tribune, is engaged with observing and reporting on the tendencies in the Foreign Exchange Market.

References

  1. ^ (www.binarytribune.com)

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